Heterogeneity in the determinants of length of stay across middle age and senior age groups in thermal tourism

ABSTRACT

Water has been seen as a healing source of life for centuries. Even the placebo effect of thermal therapies increases consumers’ well-being. Especially with easy traveling options demand for thermal therapies are on the rise. Users of thermal therapies are mostly composed of seniors. Even though age groups in the senior market have heterogeneous needs, managers assume them to be homogenous. Measuring thermal tourism demand by the length of stay, this study analyzed the determinants affecting the length of stay of older thermal tourists. The length of stay is predicted to have been affected by age, purchasing power, physical distance, and seasonal preferences. Even though all of the above have an effect on the length of stay, we find that age is the main determinant deciding the duration. These results may serve as a starting point for policymakers and tourism managers to tailor strategies to increase income streams associated with length of stay.     

SPAM模型和遥感结合提取华北地区春夏玉米种植面积

[目的]获取农作物空间分布信息,对于研究区域粮食安全、气候变化、陆地碳氮循环和水资源利用等都具有重要意义。[方法]该研究首先应用作物空间分配模型(SPAM-China模型),在5'×5'栅格尺度上重建了1980—2010年华北地区玉米空间分布信息;然后基于SPOT VEGETATION长时间序列NDVI数据,获取了该区域的作物熟制信息,并进一步划分出了华北地区春、夏玉米种植类型区;最后,重点分析了2000—2010年间华北地区春玉米和夏玉米种植区域的时空变化特征。[结果](1)1980—2010期间,华北地区玉米种植面积增加了360万hm2,增加面积集中在中南部地区,变化主要发生在2000年以后;(2)2000—2010期间,华北地区春玉米面积增加136万hm2,占该区玉米总种植面积的比例由17%上升至27%;夏玉米种植面积尽管也增加了87万hm2,但占该区玉米总种植面积的比重呈下降趋势;(3)春夏玉米混种区为华北地区玉米主产区,近年来呈现为春玉米增加、夏玉米减少的发展趋势,全区域92%春玉米面积增加和76%夏玉米面积减少均发生在春夏玉米混种区域内,可见该区以春玉米为代表的一熟制正呈现逐步取代以冬小麦—夏玉米为主二熟制的变化趋势。[结论]该文基于SPAM模型和遥感结合提取华北地区春、夏玉米种植面积的方法,为大区域、长时间尺度作物种植信息的获取提供了新思路。     

我国玉米生产空间布局变迁及其影响因素分析

[目的]玉米是我国重要的粮食作物之一,玉米空间布局的变化对国内玉米市场的供求价格及供需关系产生影响之外,并在更深层次对我国玉米产业的发展产生影响。[方法]立足空间计量经济学的研究理论,文章首先应用全局Moran's I指数检验1997—2015年我国省域玉米种植面板数据的空间相关性,并进一步通过构建空间杜宾模型(SDM)实证分析我国玉米种植布局变化的影响因素。[结果]计量结果显示,我国玉米种植布局存在显著的空间正向相关性;农户的以往决策、农业技术、农村基础水利设施、市场粮食价格指数对我国省域玉米种植面积扩大有正向影响,其中技术和政策的空间溢出效应显著;各影响因素的局部性效应致使中国玉米种植布局发生变化。[结论]建议政府部门重视我国省域间玉米产业空间之间的联动性,出台差异化的玉米产业支持办法,稳定省域之间粮食的供求关系,切实做好跨区域粮食调配工作,实现我国粮食自给自足,保障粮食安全。     

A Case of Mistaken Identity? Measuring Rates of Improved Seed Adoption in Tanzania Using DNA Fingerprinting

Studies of improved seed adoption in developing countries are almost always based on household surveys and are premised on the assumption that farmers can accurately self-report their use of improved seed varieties. However, recent studies suggest that farmers’ reports of seed varieties planted, or even whether the seed is local or improved, are sometimes inconsistent with the DNA fingerprinting results of those crops. We use household survey data from Tanzania to test the alignment between farmer-reported and DNA-identified maize seed types planted. In the sample, 70% of maize seed observations are correctly reported as local or improved, while 16% are type I errors (falsely reported as improved) and 14% are type II errors (falsely reported as local). Type I errors are more likely to have been sourced from other farmers, rather than formal channels. An analysis of input use, including seed, fertiliser, and labour allocations, reveals that farmers tend to treat improved maize differently, depending on whether they correctly perceive it as improved. This suggests that errors in farmers’ seed type awareness may translate into suboptimal management practices. The average yield of seed that is correctly identified as improved is almost 700 kg per hectare greater than that of type I errors. This indicates that investments in farmers’ access to information, seed labelling, and seed system oversight are needed to complement investments in seed variety development.     

A paradigm shift in African agricultural research for development: the role of innovation platforms

To demonstrate the development impact of their outputs, agricultural research and development (R&D) organizations used to focus on the efficiency and effectiveness of technologies. In recent years, innovation systems thinking has started to address institutional and organizational barriers to technological change in African agriculture. The main approach used has been the multi-stakeholder innovation platform (IP). This paper analyses the requirements for improving the competence and skills of IPs actors in agricultural value chains, food systems, and natural resource management. As case studies, it uses IPs in the maize and cassava value chains that were initiated in the dissemination of new agricultural technologies in Africa (DONATA), in both West and Central Africa, and made reference to the rice IPs facilitated by AfricaRice. Yields and incomes in maize and cassava IPs significantly increased and inter-actor relationships and behavioural change among the diverse social and economic operators were enhanced. This achievement built on three capacity development interventions: (i) learning workshops that sensitized and informed technocrats and policy-makers and nurtured their involvement and ownership, (ii) competence and skill training of IP facilitators and practitioners, and (iii) coaching and mentoring of these facilitators and practitioners. To better facilitate IPs, facilitators and practitioners need to learn to observe, recreate, test, and perfect the IP process and value chain approach. Practicable tools that can be visualized and put into practice by the IP actors are essential. The DONATA on which the paper is based has been invaluable in terms of experiential learning.     

Soil CO2 emission and carbon budget of a wheat/maize annual double-cropped system in response to tillage and residue management in the North China Plain

To investigate the impacts of tillage and crop residue managements on soil CO₂ emission and C budget in a wheat (Triticum aestivum L.)/maize (Zea mays L.) double-cropped system in the North China Plain (NCP), a field experiment was conducted consisting of four treatments: tillage with crop residues retention (CT+), tillage with crop residues removal (CT?), no-till with crop residues retention (NT+), and no-till with crop residues removal (NT?). Daily soil CO₂ fluxes changed with crop growing stage and peaked during the most vigorous growth of period, fluxes in maize season were higher than those in wheat season. Compared to the tilled soils, cumulative CO₂ emissions were significantly lower under no-till treatments. The largest cumulative CO₂ emission occurred under CT+ (65?g CO₂-C m^?2 y^?1) and the smallest was under NT+ (39?g CO₂-C m^?2 y^?1). After 5 years of the experiment, soil organic carbon (SOC) sequestration were greater with crop residues retention (CT+ and NT+) than with crop residues removal (CT? and NT?), the maximum SOC stock was in NT+ (5940?g C m^?2) while the minimum was in CT? (3635?g C m^?2). NT+ could help to mitigate CO₂ emission in the annual wheat/maize double-cropping system of the area.     

三伏天和三九天采用隔附子饼灸治疗四肢逆冷症的临床疗效

目的探讨三伏天和三九天采用隔附子饼灸治疗四肢逆冷症的临床疗效。方法选取我院于2012年7月至2013年1月收治的四肢逆冷症患者54例,将其随机分为三伏组与三九组,均采用隔附子饼灸,治疗1个疗程后进行疗效评定。结果两组患者总有效率分别为92.6%、85.2%,差异无统计学意义(P>0.05);治愈率分别为59.3%、29.6%,两组比较差异有统计学意义(P<0.05)。结论在三伏天和三九天施行隔附子饼灸均能有效改善四肢逆冷症,且与节气、气温关系密切,在三伏天施灸为最佳时期,符合"春夏养阳"的理论。     

完善休渔制度巩固伏休成果

本文介绍了我国实行伏季休渔制度7年来的基本情况,对实施休渔制度的成绩和经验进行了总结,并针对存在的问题提出了对策和建议。     

我国玉米生产驱动因素贡献份额分析基于埃塔平方法（η2）

目的 从气象、生产投入、社会经济、技术进步、政策五个方面对玉米生产的驱动因素进行定量分析,明确不同驱动因素对玉米生产的影响程度。方法 文章采用埃塔平方法（η²）对1978—2018年玉米生产数据进行分析,分别对全国和两大主产区建立全因素模型和局部因素模型群,测算各组因素的贡献份额。结果 （1）在全国全时段模型群中,技术进步因素对我国玉米生产的独立贡献份额最大,为2.71%,生产投入和社会经济因素次之,而政策因素的贡献份额最小。多因素的交互作用中,贡献份额最为突出的是由气象、生产投入、社会经济和技术进步四大因素组成的模型,对我国玉米生产交互贡献了19.78%。（2）在全国分时段模型群中,社会经济因素的贡献份额始终最大,对全国玉米的贡献作用最为显著。多因素的交互作用中,气象、生产投入、社会经济和技术进步因素组合模型的交互贡献份额在除20世纪80年代外均表现为最大,而1980时段气象、社会经济、技术进步和政策因素的交互贡献份额最大,为10.28%。（3）在分区域全时段模型群中,北方春玉米区的气象因素独立贡献份额最大,政策因素最小,而黄淮海夏玉米区的生产投入因素独立贡献份额最大,技术进步因素最小。多因素的交互作用中,北方春玉米区的气象、生产投入、社会经济和技术进步因素的交互贡献份额最大,而黄淮海夏玉米区的生产投入、社会经济、技术进步和政策因素的交互贡献份额最大。结论 在全国全时段中,技术进步、生产投入和社会经济因素对玉米生产影响显著,气象和政策因素的影响效应在多个因素的相互作用中有所削弱;在不同时段中,社会经济、技术进步因素的驱动作用始终较大,其中社会经济的驱动作用最为显著;不同区域受驱动因素的影响存在一定的差异,要因地制宜进行合理的玉米生产。     

Climate Smart Agriculture? Assessing the Adaptation Implications in Zambia

We examine a set of potentially climate smart agricultural practices, including reduced tillage, crop rotation and legume intercropping, combined with the use of improved seeds and inorganic fertiliser, for their effects on maize yields in Zambia. We use panel data from the Rural Incomes and Livelihoods Surveys merged with a novel set of climatic variables based on geo‐referenced historical rainfall and temperature data to explore the changing effects of these practices with climatic conditions. We estimate the impacts on maize yields, and also on the exhibition of very low yields and yield shortfalls from average levels, as indicators of resilience, while controlling for household characteristics. We find that minimum soil disturbance and crop rotation have no significant impact on these yield outcomes, but that legume intercropping significantly increases yields and reduces the probability of low yields even under critical weather stress during the growing season. We also find that the average positive impacts of modern input use (seeds and fertilisers) are significantly conditioned by climatic variables. Timely access to fertiliser emerges as one of the most robust determinants of yields and their resilience. These results have policy implications for targeted interventions to improve the productivity and the resilience of smallholder agriculture in Zambia in the face of climate change.